Locked Jet Streams, Fire Tornadoes, and the Politics of Wildfire

Spotfire! Blog
Written By Mike Beasley

Climate-driven changes to the jet stream lead to stationary high-pressure systems that bring extended heat, dryness, and strong pressure gradients

In 2018, the Carr Fire tore through Northern California with a ferocity few had ever seen. Among its horrors was a fire tornado with wind speeds surpassing 143 mph—comparable to the winds during the firebombing of Dresden in World War II. This wasn’t just a wildfire; it was an urban conflagration that obliterated entire neighborhoods in minutes. 1,077 homes were destroyed in the fire, and there were eight fatalities, with three of them being firefighters

What caused such extreme fire behavior? A groundbreaking study published on June 16th in Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences sheds new light. Researchers found that the atmospheric conditions behind persistent heatwaves—driven by something called Quasi-Resonant Amplification (QRA) of planetary waves—have tripled in frequency since 1950.

The Science of Atmospheric Gridlock

QRA happens when certain planetary waves in the jet stream (wave numbers 6 to 8) get trapped in a latitudinal “waveguide,” locking weather patterns in place for weeks This leads to:

  • Stagnant high-pressure ridges

  • Persistent heat and drought

  • Amplified winds and vorticity near the edges of these ridges

These same conditions were present during the Carr Fire’s fire tornado, as well as in the 2023 Maui wildfires and the recent 2025 Los Angeles fires.

Winds, Vorticity, and the Fire Behavior Connection

The trapped waves don’t just bake the landscape—they also ramp up surface wind speeds and vorticity, creating the perfect environment for:

  • Fire-generated vortices

  • Pyroconvective columns that carry burning embers miles ahead

  • Explosive fire spread, even in urban areas

The Carr Fire tornado’s winds were a direct result of these atmospheric dynamics—not just dry fuels or poor fire management.

Fire Isn’t Always About Trees

It’s crucial to note that neither the Maui fires nor the recent L.A. fires burned dense timber. These fires spread primarily through grasses, shrubs, and urban wildland interface fuels. Yet, political narratives often push logging as the main “solution” to wildfires.

This is misleading because:

  • Logging can increase fire risk by leaving behind flammable debris

  • Many modern fires are grass-driven, not crown fires in forests

  • Suppression policies alone cannot stop fires fueled by extreme atmospheric conditions

Politics, Climate, and the Erasure of Science

Talking openly about climate change’s role in wildfires has become politically fraught. Under the Trump administration, references to climate change were removed from federal websites. Today, some officials deflect blame onto leadership, equipment, or even Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies rather than acknowledging climate’s role.

This deliberate obfuscation risks leaving the public—and policymakers—blind to the root causes of increasingly severe wildfires.

What This New Research Means

This new research found:

“An increase in resonant planetary wave events, which favor persistent summer weather extremes, is evident since the mid-twentieth century, with an increase from roughly 1 to 3 events per summer on average.”

These findings highlight the need to:

  • Incorporate atmospheric wave diagnostics into wildfire forecasting

  • Recognize that climate change-driven jet stream changes play a central role

  • Rethink fire policy beyond timber and suppression alone

Final Thoughts

Megafires may start on the ground—they are sustained by weather, topography, and available fuels.

When jet streams stall and trap heat and wind in place, fires become unmanageable. There are insufficient resources to stop all wildfires, even if that was ecologically desirable or sustainable. Leaning into AI controlled detection and extinguish of all fires with drones or other aircraft is a dangerous return to the failed fire exclusion policy of the past. Fire exclusion has always been a timber industry priority. The very origin of the U.S. Forest Service was driven by this monied interest. No timber stand and no home is worth a firefighter’s life. We can do more to prevent wildfire loss through mandatory building codes, zoning, and a wide variety of fuel treatments including use of fire where appropriate. Recognizing this is critical if we want to prepare for—and prevent—the next generation of megafires.

Mike Beasley (posted to my Substack)

June 26, 2025

Mike Beasley
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