Hollowed Out

How DOGE Cuts and a Controversial Executive Order Are Leaving Wildland Firefighters—and the Nation—Exposed

As the 2025 wildfire season looms, the federal wildland firefighting workforce faces unprecedented challenges—not only from the escalating climate crisis but also from sweeping administrative overhauls and budgetary constraints.

The cumulative effect of cuts across these land management agencies undermines the infrastructure supporting wildland firefighter health and safety. Reduced funding and staffing hinder research, enforcement of safety standards, and the provision of essential resources, potentially increasing health risks for firefighters exposed to hazardous smoke conditions.

In the wake of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiatives, led by Elon Musk, significant staffing reductions have occurred across federal agencies responsible for wildfire management. Chaotic firings of probationary employees, and others, followed quickly by re-hirings, were experienced in all the Federal land management agencies. This, all the while official government inboxes filled with official Reduction in Force (RIF) messages alongside weird loyalty pledges and whimsical demands of a ketamine addict. These cuts have strained resources and fueled uncertainty over job security, raising concerns about the readiness and effectiveness of wildfire response teams.

Compounding these issues is a draft Executive Order (EO) under consideration by the Trump administration, aiming to consolidate federal wildland firefighting efforts into a new National Wildland Fire Agency by 2026. The EO emphasizes rapid suppression of wildfires, proposing response times within 30 minutes, streamlining procurement processes, and sharp reductions in oversight of the private contract wildland firefighting aircraft industry. A quick fact worth considering is that the wealth gap between firefighter “boots on the ground” and the owners of large expensive fleets of aircraft is vast, though the latter group wraps itself in patriotic trappings.

The EO has drawn criticism for its potential conflicts of interest. Notably, Senator Tim Sheehy (R-MT), a former Navy SEAL and co-founder of Bridger Aerospace—a company specializing in aerial firefighting—has been linked to the draft. Sheehy still holds stock in Bridger Aerospace. Like so much in this administration, the grift is in your face.

Operational and Safety Concerns

The proposed reorganization and budget cuts are expected to have tangible impacts on wildfire response capabilities:

• Staffing Shortages: Reduced personnel may lead to under- or un-staffed fire equipment and decreased federal representation on Incident Management Teams (IMTs), potentially compromising coordination and effectiveness. This accelerates a long-term trend of declining Federal representation on IMTs, with state and local government fire staff attempting to fill the gap. Even private companies are positioning to staff out IMTs. This represents a significant reduction in firefighters and IMTs accostomed to managing fires in the backcountry, far from roads and infrastructure. Decreased module performance and gaps in leadership will lead to inefficiencies in effective fire suppression. Look for a decrease in the much touted initial attack success rate, as more fires escape initial efforts to become large fires leading to more infrastructure and lives lost. Similarly, we can expect increasing UTF (Unable to Fill) rates from the National Interagency Coordination Center—real-time evidence that the national firefighting bench is thinning

• Safety Risks: Module leaders and managers are currently scrambling to hire and fill the many vacancies sprinkled randomly across the agencies.Lack of cohesion from IMT operations down to hand crews and modules increases the likelihood of operational errors, close calls, and serious injuries. The EO suggests suspending certain safety protocols, such as aircraft inspections, which were established following past fatal accidents. Experts warn that such measures could endanger both firefighters and the public .

• Resource Allocation: Emphasis on rapid suppression may divert attention and resources from essential land management practices like prescribed burns and forest thinning, which are crucial for long-term wildfire mitigation.

Undermining Health and Welfare Oversight

Beyond operational concerns, the DOGE cuts have also affected agencies overseeing firefighter health and safety. Smoke isn’t just a firefighter issue—public exposure is rising, especially in the West. Smoke exposure has been linked to cancer, cardiovascular disease, and long-term respiratory damage. Firefighters are the canaries in the coal mine; if they’re unprotected, we all are. DOGE cuts eliminate the data, science, and safeguards needed to protect not just fire crews, but entire regions from smoke-driven health crises. The U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, under the leadership of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has seen a third of its funding or 40 billion dollars cut. HHS oversees:

• NIOSH: The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, which oversees the American Firefighter Smoke Exposure Register (AFSER), faces reduced research capacity, hindering efforts to study long-term health effects of smoke exposure. AFSER—already too new to have delivered actionable policy—now appears to have been mothballed altogether, with a note on their website reading:

  “Due to the reduction in force across NIOSH, firefighters can no longer enroll in the National Firefighter Registry for Cancer.”

  No funding = no research, no registry = no evidence = no support or policy changes. NIOSH also manages the Fire Fighter Fatality Investigation and Prevention Program (FFFIPP)

• NIH and NCI: Funding cuts to the National Institutes of Health and the National Cancer Institute have stalled research into occupational illnesses linked to firefighting, such as cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Without research dollars, the link between cancer and smoke exposure stays "inconclusive"—a loophole for avoiding compensation.

Other agencies engaged in wildland firefighter safety getting cuts:

• OSHA: The Occupational Safety and Health Administration's ability to enforce workplace safety standards has been compromised, just as concerns grow over toxic exposure, cumulative fatigue, and safety breakdowns in the field. Weakened enforcement leaves crews vulnerable to toxic smoke and inadequate rest, hydration, and protection protocols.

• NOAA:

  • This agency oversees the National Weather Service that provides meteorologists to write custom fire weather forecasts, issue red flag warnings, and support IMTs on-site in fire camps. Budget cuts have led to staffing reductions of 20% to 40% in some NWS offices, particularly affecting rural areas. This diminishes the agency's capacity to deliver timely and accurate forecasts, increasing risks for firefighters and communities.​

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center provides forecasts on drought, temperature anomalies, and seasonal fire potential. The proposed budget aims to eliminate the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), cutting its budget by close to 75% . This would severely impact the development of climate prediction tools essential for long-term wildfire preparedness.

  • NOAA's satellites are vital for tracking fire behavior, smoke dispersion, and vegetation dryness. Proposed budget cuts include canceling major instrument and spacecraft contracts on the GeoXO program, potentially compromising real-time monitoring of wildfires . This reduction in satellite capabilities could hinder the detection of new ignitions and the assessment of fire spread.

  • Budget constraints have led to the suspension of translated weather alerts and reduced availability of weather balloon launches, which are crucial for tracking atmospheric conditions . These reductions may delay public warnings during fast-moving wildfires, affecting evacuation efforts and public safety.

Fire Season Ahead

While the national media fixates on budget line items and political spectacle, fire professionals on the ground are bracing for the measurable fallout. These aren’t abstract bureaucratic concerns. These are metrics that will show up in satellite fire maps, hospital burn units, and air quality warnings this summer. The chaos created by the first 100 days of the Trump administration raises significant concerns about wildland fire safety, effectiveness, and potential conflicts of interest. A comprehensive strategy that balances rapid response with preventive land management, ensures adequate staffing and training, and upholds rigorous safety standards is essential.

The push to streamline wildland fire operations into a singular federal agency—while politically convenient—doesn’t work without sustained investment and a robust transition strategy. Instead, DOGE has weaponized the idea of “efficiency” to rationalize indiscriminate cuts, even as climate pressure and fire behavior continue to escalate.

This year will be the stress test. When UTFs surge, accidents mount, and when smoke presages another climate-driven wildfire season, the costs of these policy decisions won’t be theoretical.

They’ll be burning right in front of us.

Mike Beasley (posted to my Substack)

April 29, 2025